RATE UPDATE 10/23/26: Oil Up. Rates Down.

Oil prices went up.

Rates went down.

If that sounds backwards, it is.

ANALYSIS

On paper, this should have been an ugly week for rates.

Fears of Middle East escalation spiked.

By Friday, oil hit its highest level since May.

Higher oil means higher inflation.

Higher inflation means higher rates.

Except...

Rates dropped.

So what gives?

AI.

To say AI is the elephant in the room for this economy is the understatement of the century.

This week, the fear that the AI buildout is too expensive took over the markets (again).

As tech company shares plunged, investors sought safety.

And ran to Treasury bonds.

More buyers of bonds = lower rates.

On Thursday, 10-year Treasury yields posted their biggest one-day drop in three years.

That's big.

Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in three weeks.

WHAT'S NEXT

Oil. The Middle East. Inflation.

All are important.

But right now?

Everything revolves around AI.

If AI stocks surge, expect rates to rise with them.

If AI keeps taking hits, expect the opposite.

The Fed also meets Wednesday, so buckle up.

But if you want to know where rates go next...

Watch the tech stocks.

Have a great weekend!

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About the author: Matt Henderson is a Partner and Senior Loan Officer at Greenlight Mortgage Group in Boulder, Colorado. He writes this rate update every Friday.

Read Matt's bio and get in touch

Matt Henderson | Greenlight Mortgage Group, a division of Xpert Home Lending, Inc. | (303) 748-8400

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Educational only. Not a commitment to lend, a credit approval, or an offer of rate or terms. Any figures are estimates that vary with credit, property, and your full scenario. Always compare Loan Estimates before choosing a lender. Equal Housing Opportunity.